邓小平之后的中国:探索过程中的国家对外战略

China after Deng Xiaoping:The Search Process for National Foreign Strategies

当代中国对外战略源于20世纪80年代中期邓小平对世界大势和主题的根本判断。在经历1989年春夏严峻政治风潮的考验之后,邓小平提出"二十六字"对外战略方针,并通过1992年其"南巡"讲话,为此后中国和平发展奠定了思想和理论基础。近20多年中国经济的强劲走势,为中国对外战略转型提供了最根本的条件。然而,20多年里一系列外部重大事件引起的世界格局调整及治理更趋复杂和艰难,不断影响和推动着中国对外战略的探索过程。随着2008年金融危机和其后持续经济衰退,以美国为首的西方更为内向,对外政策的进攻性相对减弱,中国则更加关注周边安全,采取相对主动的大力进取重塑地区经济和安全秩序,中美在东亚、东南亚的影响力竞争加剧。中共十八大以来,中国"主动有所作为"的战略转型更加显著,其焦点之一就是在最具战略意义的亚洲和西太平洋地区愈益增进自身的战略权利及权势影响,先是偏重"战略军事"调整和布局,而后施行"战略军事"与"战略经济"并举之策,结果是既获得重大收益,亦有重要风险。非常可取的是,2016年秋季往后,部分地是为应对"特朗普冲击",部分地是为打造接续引领全球发展的包容性形象,再加上美国在对外合作方面的消极趋向提供的重要机遇,中国在东亚西太平洋的战略近乎全面地显著温和化。现今的复杂挑战特别在中美贸易对抗和朝鲜问题上。中共十九大开启中国特色社会主义的新时代,三个"更为大力"将构成对外战略方向的长期前景。

The national foreign strategies of contemporary China started with Deng Xiaoping’s essential judgment on major world trends and themes.Im-mediately after China underwent a stern political ordeal at the turn of spring and summer in 1989,Deng Xiaoping raised his most well-known grand strategic policy of“26 characters”for both domestic and foreign affairs,followed by his historic Southern Tour in 1992,which launched China into a dramatic economic take-off and therefore created a fundamental environ-ment for China’s strategies.What came next was a complex search process with vicissitudes and related events caused by NATO’s Kosovo War in 1999 and its aftermath which were particularly important.America’s domestic confusions and debates were made more profound by the 9/11 terror attack,and the key to this strategic evolution was defining the drastically changed and changing situations.The CCP’s Sixteenth National Congress toward the end of 2002 represented a further major clarification and optimization of China’s foreign strategies,while important dilemmas and tensions still being embedded within.During the next six years,China developed a grand suc-cessful strategy,combining peaceful rise on the one hand and military build-up on the other.Since the fall of 2008,the financial crisis and economic recession have made the western world led by the United States,in a relative sense,begin to increasingly decline.Accompanying this historic structural change and multiplications was the intensified diplomatic power competition between Beijing and Washington in East and Southeast Asia.China suffered a setback for various reasons.During the three and a half years since the CCP’s Eighteenth National Congress held in November 2012,for the most strategically important region of Asia and western Pacific China,mainly for its increasing strategic rights and power influence,China depended primarily on the conduct of“strategic military,”followed by a combined approach of“strategic military”with“strategic economy,”resulting in both great benefits and major risks for China itself.Around the o-pening of the G20 summit in Hangzhou in September 2016,the strategic posture started to become moderate primarily as a major desirable develop-ment.Then quickly,for dealing with the“Trump storm,”together with other reasons including China’s much greater aspiration to join the“world leadership”after Trump’s America drastically retrenched the U.S.global commitments,China’s strategic moderation in this broad region developed greatly throughout the entire year of 2017.At the same time,Beijing’s greatest foreign difficulty during this year adamantly remained the North Korea problem.The CCP’s Nineteenth National Congress has launched a new era of“Socialism with Chinese Characteristics”under the centralized command of Xi Jinping,and the“three plus”will surely constitute the long-term prospect of China’s foreign strategies.