安倍长期执政的原因探析:社会变迁、制度设计、“安倍经济学”

The Cause of Abe 's Long-term Administration: Social Changes, System Design and Abenomics

第三产业急速发展以及泡沫经济崩溃引发的政治、经济、社会等各个领域的改革,造成各种利益集团的组织规模及其政治动员能力的降低。同时日本正在进入工作与生活逐渐个性化的后工业化社会,年轻一代的价值观发生较大变化,其追求的亚文化具有"轻视或无视实证性、客观性"的"反知性主义"特征,他们是安倍政府的支持群体。泡沫经济崩溃后实施的一系列政治、行政改革强化了首相以及首相官邸的权力,特别是内阁人事局的设立,进一步使行政机构高级官僚受制于官邸。诸多"安倍经济学"基础上的政策实施及其效果,以及在野党的弱化,也是安倍长期执政的重要因素。

In Japan,the rapid development of the tertiary industry and the reforms of the political,economic,social and other fields caused by the collapse of the bubble economy have resulted in the reduction of the organizational scale and political mobilization ability of various interest groups.Meanwhile,Japan is entering a post-industrial society in which people’s work and life are gradually individualized.The values of young generations,who are supporters of Abe’s regime,have changed greatly,and the subcultures they pursue have the characteristics of“belittling or ignoring positivism and objectivity”,a reflection of“anti-intellectualism”.A series of political and administrative reforms implemented after the collapse of the bubble economy have strengthened the powers of the prime minister and his office,particularly,the establishment of the Bureau of Cabinet Personnel further restricts the power of senior bureaucrats in the executive branch to the prime minister’s office.The implementation and effect of policies based on Abenomics,as well as the weakening of opposition parties,are also important factors in Abe’s long-term administration.