人民币短期均衡汇率测算方法及应用研究

Measurement Method and Applied Research of RMB Short-term Equilibrium Exchange Rate

研究目标:设定一套短期均衡汇率的测算方法并对中国短期均衡汇率进行测算。研究方法:在区分数学均衡和经济均衡的条件下,将计量经济状态空间模型方法与非线性规划方法相结合建立混合模型。研究发现:世界各国汇率政策更加关注短期均衡,如果人民币汇率能够达到短期均衡,与汇率相关的各项经济指标都将得到改善。研究创新:给出了短期均衡汇率的理论概念和定义,提出了短期均衡汇率模型的设计思想,构建了包括一套计量模型和一套优化模型在内的分层嵌套的多目标条件下短期均衡汇率最优化模型(MOER)并加以应用。研究价值:本文的研究有助于推动短期均衡汇率理论的发展,完善短期均衡汇率的测算方法,MOER模型可为我国政府汇率决策提供参考。

This paper sets up a set of short-term equilibrium exchange rate measurement method,and calculates the short-term equilibrium exchange rate of China.Research Methods:Under the condition of distinguishing mathematical equilibrium and economic equilibrium,a hybrid model is established by combining the econometric method of state space model with the nonlinear programming method.Research Findings:The exchange rate policy in the world pays more attention to the short-term equilibrium.If the RMB exchange rate can reach the short-term equilibrium,the economic indicators related to the exchange rate will be improved.Research Innovations:This paper gives the theoretical concept and definition of short-term equilibrium exchange rate,puts forward the idea of short-term equilibrium exchange rate model,and cunstructs the multi-objective equilibrium exchange rate model which includes a set of econometric model and optimization model.Research Value:This paper will help to promote the development of short-term equilibrium exchange rate theory and improve the measurement method of short-term equilibrium exchange rate.The MOER model can provide reference for the government s exchange rate decision-making in our country.