基于投入产出表的隐含问题计算方法辨析——以中国增加值出口隐含国内碳排放强度计算为例

Method Analysis of Implicit Issue Calculation Based on Input-output Table

研究目标:辨析最终需求隐含问题主要计算方法的准确性。研究方法:先通过模型推导辨析文献方法的准确性,再以中国为例实证分析文献方法及本文新法的准确性,最后使用对数平均迪氏分解法(LMDI)进行因素分解研究。研究发现:先计算最终需求引致的产出值,再将直接强度系数与引致的产出值相乘,来计算行业或部门最终需求中隐含问题的方法存在逻辑错误,因此是错误的计算方法。绿色生产技术效率变化效应是中国增加值出口中碳排放强度下降的主要因素,中国增加值出口占出口值份额总体呈下降趋势。研究创新:辨析了目前最常用方法中的错误,提出了更简便、更易理解的新方法。研究价值:避免隐含问题研究继续由错误思路方法计算出无意义的错误结果。

Analyzing final demand implicit issue calculation main method s accuracy.Research Methods:Deriving implicit issue calculation method in final demend based on the principle of input-output table and leontief inverse matrix,Using the derived method to calculate China s value-added exports and implied carbon intensity,Using LMDI to do intensity change factor decomposition.Research Findings:The method through direct strength coeffcient multiply the output value which induced by final demend value is wrong.China s value-added exports embodied carbon emission intensity decreased obviously during 1995~2009,which caused mainly by green production technical efficiency change.The domestic added-value share in export value also assumes overall downward trend from 1995 to 2011.Research Innovations:Analyzing errors in the most common literature method and presenting new calculation method.Research Value:Avoiding continuing errors in future reseach of final demend embodied issue.