特朗普贸易战的基本逻辑、本质及其应对

The Basic Logic,Essence and Response of the Trump Trade War

中国正面临特朗普挑起贸易战的严峻形势。特朗普发起贸易战的根本逻辑,不排除西方政治精英们对中国崛起的恐惧和忧虑等因素,但从经济利益角度看,主要原因可以归纳为认知上的差异、利益上的失衡以及中国成长中的阵痛。由于特朗普贸易战是一种单边主义和贸易保护主义行径,因此虽然表面上看似乎是中美对抗,但从全球价值链分工特征事实看,本质上却是对全球生产网络的破坏,以及对当前国际经贸规则体系的粗暴践踏。因此,如果应对不当,在自身利益遭受损失的同时,更面临着全球经济陷入"特朗普陷阱"的可能和风险。在此背景下,虽然中国不希望打贸易战,但面对来势凶猛的特朗普贸易战,中国既不能怕也不能躲,而要从特朗普贸易战发动的基本逻辑着眼,保持战略定力,冷静应对。既不可反应过激,也要采取有限反击和有策略性的让步等战略举措进行有效应对,将贸易战控制在一定范围内。这不仅是为了维护自身利益的需要,也是避免陷入引发全球经济秩序混乱的"特朗普陷阱"的需要。

From the current development situation,China has faced the severe situation that Trump started a trade war.The fundamental logic of the Trump trade war,does not exclude the western political elite factors such as fear and anxiety about China’s rise,but from the perspective of the economic interests,the main reasons can be summarized as cognitive differences,disequilibrium of interests,and China’s growing pains.Due to Trump trade war is a kind of unilateralism and trade protectionism,so it seems to be a war between China and the United States,but from the division of global value chain characteristic,essentially is the destruction of the global production networks,as well as the blatant violation of international economic and trade rules system.Therefore,if the response is not correct,the global economy will be exposed to the potential and risks of the“Trump trap”.Therefore,although China does not want to play a trade war,but in the face of ferocious Trump trade war,China can neither fear nor hide.China should maintain strategic concentration and calmly response to the trade war.We should not overreact,but we should also take a limited response and strategic concessions,such as strategic concessions,to effectively deal with the trade war within a certain range.This is not just a need to protect their own interests,but also the need to avoid the“Trump trap”that most probably create a chaotic global economic order.