中美两国在东亚区域的影响力——受众视角的实证分析

Co-opetition and the Influence of China and the United States in East Asia: An Empirical Analysis from the Receiver's Perspective

对东亚14个国家或地区的多数民众而言,中国已经超过美国成为最具影响力的国家,若考虑到对未来十年发展的预期,东亚民众对中国影响力的认同则更强。大多数东亚民众倾向于对中美两国都给予正面评价,并认为中美在东亚具有广泛的合作与互惠的基础,而非对立或零和关系。对东亚民众而言,经济优势在个体与总体层面均是中国在亚洲软实力的重要助力,而美国则具有中国所不具备的现状优势。制度差异在个体和总体层面都显示出"同类相近"的现象,但中美并未被东亚民众视为对立关系。文化解释在个体上具有解释力,其影响方向并不因评价对象是中国或美国而有所不同;在总体层次上则表现为,与中国文化价值越近似的国家或地区,对中国影响力评价就越正面,反之则更倾向于正面评价美国。来自东亚社会的调查资料印证了"宽广的太平洋两岸有足够空间容纳中美两个大国"的论断,表明中美两国在东亚合作共赢具有广泛的民意基础,中国在新型国际关系构建方面具有良好的周边环境与发展契机。

For most people in 14 surveyed countries or regions of East Asia,China has surpassed the United States as the most influential country.This trend will become more significant in the next ten years.This study also finds that most citizens tend to give positive evaluations of the influence of both China and the United States in East Asia.They also believe that the two countries have a broad base of cooperation and reciprocity rather than zero-sum competition.By examining factors at the individual and the macro levels,we find that the growing economic advantage of China has strengthened the country s soft power in East Asia.Yet the United States retains advantages in the region not enjoyed by China due to its historical dominance.We also find a phenomenon of“like attracts like,”with respondents in countries or regions institutional similarities to either China or the United States more likely to have a positive view of the country that they are more institutionally similar to.However,respondents did not view the relations between the two countries in antagonistic terms.In addition,cultural factors have consistent effects on evaluations towards both China and the United States.At the macro level,we find that“like attracts like”-countries or regions which have cultural values that are similar to China are more likely to show positive views of China s influence,otherwise they tend to view the United States more favorably.Overall,social survey data in East Asia lend support to the argument that“the Pacific Ocean is big enough to accommodate China and the United States.”Our findings show that Sino-U.S.win-win cooperation in East Asia has a solid foundation in public opinion.Therefore,China has a favorable neighboring environment and development opportunities in the construction of a new type of international relations.