公众政治支持的社会来源及其变化——基于2015年“中国城乡社会治理调查”(CSGS)的实证研究

The Social Origin and Change of the Political Support among Chinese Public: An Empirical Study Based on the 2015 “China Social Governance Survey”

既有研究已发现中国公众对中国政治体制的支持度很高,但对支持度来源的研究往往停留在传统的革命历史选择合法性与经济发展绩效合性法上。随着十八大以来改革与治理的推进,有必要结合新的经济、政治形势和社会结构对中国公众的政治支持开展系统研究。立足于国家治理现代化的时代背景,本文探讨了公众高度政治支持的社会来源及其变化。文章利用最新的"中国城乡社会治理调查"(CSGS2015)数据进行定量实证分析,逐步检验了文化价值观、经济发展绩效以及多种政治制度绩效的影响,并且引入社会结构变迁中的不平等变量,全面而系统地分析了文化、制度和社会结构三大类因素对公众政治支持的影响力。实证研究结果表明,文化、制度和社会结构三个方面共同且有区别地影响了公众的政治支持,而且中国公众高度政治支持的来源分布已经发生了重要的转变,即由经济发展绩效转向政治制度绩效;并且社会公平分配问题影响了政治经济制度绩效作用于政治支持的程度。

Under the background of the modernization of state governance in China,this paper discussed the source and change of the political support among Chinese public.Using data from 2015-2016“China Social Governance Survey”(CSGS 2015),this paper examined orderly and stepwisely the impacts of cultural,institutional,and social inequality variables on the Chinese public s political support.The result showed that cultural,institutional,and social factors have influenced the political support together but each of them has different particular effect.Social inequality reflected by social stratum cognition and distributional justice/injustice perception has significant effects on the political support.The conclusion is the source distribution of high political support in China has undergone a significant change from economic development performance to political institutional performance,and the social justice problem has adjusted somehow the effect that political-economic performance has on the political support.