修路能否促进农业增长?--基于农机跨区作业视角的分析

Can Road Construction Promote Agricultural Growth?An Analysis Based on the Perspective of Cross-regional Operation of Agricultural Machinery

本文基于农机跨区作业的视角,运用空间Durbin模型与门槛模型,检验了1997~2015年中国13个粮食主产省份公路基础设施建设对农业增长的空间溢出效应与门槛效应。本文研究发现:公路基础设施建设对农业增长具有空间溢出效应,且在短期内显著,但在长期内并不显著;该空间溢出效应主要是通过促进农机跨区作业这一路径来实现,而通过促进农村劳动力流动或农村产品市场与要素市场发展这两条路径并不显著。此外,本文还发现,农机跨区作业对农业增长有正向影响,且存在基于公路基础设施建设的门槛效应,这种影响在不同门槛区制下呈现先升后降的特征。以上结论表明,建设"四好农村路"要因地制宜,为农机跨区作业发展提供应有便利,以促进农业机械资源在区域间充分流动与合理配置,从而实现农业现代化的稳步推进。

Based on the perspective of cross-regional mechanization services,this article uses panel data from 13 major grain production provinces in China from 1997 to 2015 and establishes a spatial Durbin model and a threshold model to test the spatial spillover effect and threshold effect of highway infrastructure on agricultural growth,respectively.The conclusions are as follows.Firstly,in the short term,the construction of highway infrastructure has a spatial spillover effect on agricultural growth,but it is not significant in the long term.Secondly,the spatial spillover effect is mainly achieved by promoting the spillover of agricultural machinery rather than by promoting the flow of rural labors or the development of rural product markets and factor markets.Thirdly,the impact of cross-regional operation of agricultural machinery on agricultural growth has a significant positive threshold effect which varies with the construction of highway infrastructure,and this effect is characterized by rising initially and decreasing afterwards under different threshold regimes.The above conclusions suggest a necessity to construct"Four Good Rural Roads"based on local conditions and people-oriented principle,to provide convenience for the development of cross-regional operation of agricultural machinery so as to promote adequate flow and rational distribution of agricultural machinery resources in different regions,and finally achieve a steady progress of agricultural modernization.