预期利润、农业政策调整对中国农产品供给的影响

The Influence of Profit Expectation and Agriculture Policy Adjustment on Agricultural Products Supply in China

本文通过引入预期利润和农业政策等变量构建9种农产品的动态供给反应模型,研究农作物播种面积和单位面积产量的影响因素,并对比分析2004年农业政策调整前后农产品供给反应的差异。研究结果显示,预期利润对农作物播种面积有显著的正向影响,2004年农业政策调整后,预期利润、自然风险对农产品供给的影响普遍变弱,表明中国对农民利益的保护以及对农业基础设施投入的增加使农业生产抗灾能力增强;此外,滞后1期播种面积和滞后1期单位面积产量对农产品供给的影响较大,农产品供给具有刚性;灌溉面积比例、技术进步对农作物单位面积产量有显著的正向影响,自然风险对农作物单位面积产量则有显著的负向影响。本文认为,应充分利用预期利润与农产品供给的关系,通过改变比较收益和农民预期,推动农业供给侧结构性改革,解决农产品结构性短缺的问题。此外,加强农村基础设施建设、农业科技创新投入和抗灾防灾设施建设,可以对农产品供给起积极作用。

This article establishes a dynamic supply response model of 9 agricultural products in China by using variables such as expected profit and agricultural policies,and examines factors influencing crop sowing area and crop yield.It further analyzes the change in crop supply response before and after agricultural policy transformation in 2004.It finds that expected profit has a significant positive effect on crop area.After 2004,the influence of expected profit and natural risk have become weak,indicating that China’s protection of farmers’interests and increasing investment in agriculture infrastructure have strengthened agriculture production capacity and increased the level of disaster resilience.Furthermore,all crops strongly respond to area and yield of the previous year.The supply of agricultural products is rigid.Irrigation and technological progress positively affect crop yield and natural risk in a negative way for most of crops.Therefore,it proposes the significance of making full use of the relationship between expected profit and production.Supply-side structural reform in agriculture can be advanced by changing the comparative income and farmers’expectation.Finally,the study finds that,during structural adjustment in agriculture,farmers’interests can be protected by improving rural infrastructure,agricultural science and technology innovation input and disaster prevention facilities.