中国国际分工收益的演变及其决定因素分解

The Trends and Factor Decomposition on China's Earnings through International Production

本文通过一个两国模型推演不同贸易方式下的国际分工收益决定机制,发现一国所得实际产出份额在加工贸易下等于该国中间品数量渗透比与其全球价值链嵌入度之积,在一般贸易下等于中间品数量渗透比与其在使用国的生产网络关联度之积。基于1995—2014年中国数据的模拟表明,中国在国内外的分工收益主要源自一般贸易,外国从中国所得收益在2003年以前1/2以上来自加工贸易,但2004年起跌破50%。2011年以前中国加工部门国产中间品数量渗透比和全球价值链嵌入度均趋于提高,但后者对收益提升贡献更大;2012年以后加工收益份额略降,主因是国产中间品数量渗透比下降。一般贸易部门的国内收益份额以2007年为界,先降后升。国产中间品的国内网络关联度受样本期内3轮危机及中国"入世"冲击短暂下降,其他年份均上升,并在2006年以后推动了对进口中间品的替代;一般贸易出口中间品的外部网络关联度在样本期间大幅上升,显著推动了中国的海外分工收益的提升。外国在中国两大部门所得收益均相对倚重中间品数量的支撑。本文的政策建议是,应优化创新环境以促进本土企业技术进步,提升国产中间品的生产网络关联度或全球价值链嵌入度,并深化供给侧改革,促进国内地区生产网络融合。

We construct a two-country model to deduce the earning distribution mechanism in internationalized production with different trade patterns,finding that one country’s earning share equals to the product of its intermediates’quantity penetration rate and the degree of GVC embeddedness(for the processing trade sector),or the linkage to local production networks(for the general trade sector).We then cast simulation on China during 1995-2014,and the results indicate that China’s earnings through international production stem mainly from the general trade sector(both in the domestic market and overseas market),whereas the earnings gained by the rest of the world(ROW)from China’s processing trade sector accounted for more than half of the total before 2003,but fell below 50%after 2004.Intermediates supplied by China in the processing trade sector kept increasing both in terms of GVC embeddedness and quantity penetration before 2011,while the former contributed more in pushing up China’s earning share in GVC.The earning share slightly decreased after 2012,fundamentally driven by China’s input decline in quantity penetration.In the general trade sector,China’s earning from the domestic market underwent a falling-rising process,largely taking 2007 as the turning point.The intermediates’linkage to the domestic production networks tended to rise except for the years corresponding to the three crises occurred in the sample period and China’s WTO accession,therefore partly crowed out China’s intermediates import after 2006.On the export side,the linkage of China-exported intermediates to the production networks in ROW obtained significant increase throughout the sample,while ROW’s earnings from China in both sectors relied more heavily on its intermediates’quantity penetration.The policy implications of this paper refers to the importance of improving innovation environments in China,which help enhance the intermediates’linkage to the domestic production networks or GVC embeddedness,and promoting China’s regional production networks integration through supply side reform.