新形势下海峡两岸经济整合深化的经济学分析

Eonomic Analysis on the Deepening of the Cross-strait Economic Integration

在分析中美日台政治经济关系变化的基础上,构建了两岸经济整合深化的简要博弈模型,得出两岸高级形态的区域经济合作前景。在两岸政治性偏向较显著时,只有对大陆而言较大的经济合作收益才能驱动两岸的经济合作。而在两岸政治性偏向较弱时,只需对大陆而言存在一定的经济合作收益,即可能驱动两岸的经济合作。由于两岸经济规模、经济结构的非对称性,以及随着中日韩区域经济合作进程加快,两岸经济合作的收益分享的非对称性将增加,海峡两岸经济合作,可以在一定程度上推进两岸经济合作的深化。

This paper constructs a brief game model of cross-strait economic integration based on the analysis of changes of China,US,Japan and Taiwan political and economic relations and draws the prospect of the high-level regional economic cooperation between the two sides of the strait and analyzes the path choice and prospect analysis of the deepening of cross-strait economic cooperation after the democratic progressive Party has returned to power.The results showed that:(i)When the political bias between the two sides of the strait is obvious,only the larger economic cooperation benefits for the mainland government can drive cross-strait economic cooperation.However,when the political bias of the two sides of the strait is weak,there is only a certain economic cooperation benefit for the mainland government,that is,the economic cooperation between the two sides of the strait may be driven;(ii)Due to the asymmetry of economic scale,economic structure between the two sides of the strait,and the increase of asymmetry in the process of regional economic cooperation between China,Japan and South Korea,which will accelerate the sharing of benefits between the two sides of the strait;and(iii)Based political reconciliation economic cooperation between the two sides of the strait can promote the deepening of cross-strait economic integration.