陕北白绒山羊布鲁菌病传播风险因素的调查研究

Investigation on Risk Factors of Brucellosis Transmission in Northern Shaanxi White Cashmere Goats

采用现代流行病学理念和方法,通过准确把握抽样科学性、监测准确性和精确性,科学选定试验目标群,规避试验选择性偏倚,系统地对榆林市布鲁菌病(下称布病)流行率、风险因素进行研究,提出实施基于风险的布病预测模型。结果表明,2015年全市陕北白绒山羊布病群体流行率为27.42%,个体流行率为0.934%;2016年全市陕北白绒山羊布病群体流行率为14.09%,个体流行率为0.21%。陕北白绒山羊布病发生相关的诸多假定风险因素中,外购混养的饲养模式、随意丢弃流产物、产羔地不严格消毒、近1年内有羊只引进、生产区与生活区不分离、2011年以后的新建养殖场等因素是布病发生的核心风险因素(P<0.05)。通过风险因素研究成功构建了陕北白绒山羊布病发生的预测模型,对探索有效的布病防控模式和确保畜牧业健康发展与公共卫生安全具有重要意义。

In this study,advanced modern epidemiological concepts and methods were used.The brucellosis prevalence rate and risk factors were studied in Yulin city by accurately grasping the scientificity of sampling,the accuracy and precision of monitoring,the scientific selection of target groups,and the avoidance bias of test.The brucellosis prediction model was put forward on implementation of risk-based factors.The results showed that the group prevalence rate of northern Shaanxi white cashmere goat brucellosis was 27.42%and the individual prevalence rate was 0.934%in 2015.The group prevalence rate of northern Shaanxi white cashmere goat brucellosis was 14.09%and the individual prevalence rate was 0.21%in 2016.Many hypothetical risk factors,such as the mixed feeding mode with purchasing goats,the apoblema discarding at will,the lamb birthplace disinfecting no strictly,goat introducing within recent one year,the lambing place not separating from the living quarters,the new goat farm building in recent years and so on,are the core risk factors of the brucellosis occurrence in northern Shaanxi white cashmere goats(P<0.05).The prediction model of occurrence of brucellosis in northern Shaanxi white cashmere goats was constructed successfully by risk factor research.It has great significance for exploring effective pattern of control brucellosis,ensuring the healthy development of animal husbandry and the safety of public health.