数字经济重塑全球经济格局——政策竞赛和规模经济驱动下的分化与整合

Digital Economy and the Global Economic Order:Divergence and Convergence Induced by Policy Competition and Market Scale

在数字经济时代,数字资源禀赋是国家竞争力的核心,政府主导的数字化发展战略和国家间数字经济政策竞争将成为发展常态。数字化生产模式将对传统国际分工机制产生重大冲击,发展中国家融入全球产业链的难度将进一步提升,国家间经济关系和世界经济格局将发生分化与重组。区别于传统产业,数字资源禀赋的获得需依赖国家资源的持续投入。数字经济的发展需建立在相对健全的数字化生态基础之上,政府干预导向的产业政策实践将最终表现为国家间经济政策竞赛。美、欧、日等发达经济体依靠自身在信息产业领域的资源禀赋,将通过产业的数字化转型重获竞争优势。发达经济体之间基于数字资源禀赋形成的"生产稳态"关系将使其与发展中国家在分工关系上相对割裂。受资本和技术等多重因素的制约,发展中国家将面临"新数字鸿沟"问题,同时,数字经济还将催生新兴经济体之间的发展分化。此外,数字经济存在显著的规模经济和系统集成效应,成为驱动一体化的新机制和新动力。

In the era of digital economy,the digital endowment,as one of the core competitive advantages for a nation,is reshaping the landscape of the world economy.On the one hand,the development of digital economy is highly dependent on a sound and continuously improved digital ecosystem in which government-sponsored development strategies usually play a dominant role in cultivating digital-oriented emerging industries.However,government-sponsored development strategies also lead to worldwide policy competitions and that will ultimately cause a new digital divide between developed and developing countries and even among emerging economies.On the other hand,digital economy will finally change the traditional paradigm for global labor division and brings about new divergence and convergence in the world economy.In particular,digital manufacturing,as a revolutionary force compared with the traditional mode of production,will further separate developing countries from the global production chain while a new kind of closer and integrated relations among developed countries are evolving.Furthermore,due to the effects of economies of scale and system integration,the development of digital economy also provides a new mechanism and engine in promoting regional cooperation and facilitate further integration.