基于多层统计模型的城市快速路分流区通行能力影响因素分析

Research on Influencing Factors of Traffic Capacity in Diverging Area at Urban Expressway Based on Multilevel Model

为探究城市快速路分流区通行能力及其影响因素,本文根据速度-流量关系图从上海市快速路系统96个分流区中筛选了10个有效分流区瓶颈点,然后利用15分钟最大小时流率法计算分流区通行能力。此外通过工程设计图纸、电子地图与实地测量等方法获取瓶颈点通行能力可能影响因素,然后基于多层统计模型综合考虑动静态影响因素构建了分流区通行能力估计模型。模型检验结果表明估计误差仅6.4%,说明多层统计模型可以准确地估计城市快速路分流区通行能力。最后,基于模型结果提出了快速路通行能力影响因素修正系数并展开深度讨论。

To study the capacity and factors of diverging area at urban expressway,10 diverging bottlenecks are selected from 96 diverging bottlenecks based on speed-flow relationship in Shanghai.The capacity is estimated by maximum 15-min hourly flow rate.The influencing factors of traffic capcity is invested by engineering design drawings,electronic maps and field measurements.Then taking into account static and dynamic factors based on multilevel model,the traffic capacity estimate model in divierging area is built.The model test results show that the estimated error is only 6.4%,which shows that the multilevel model can accurately estimate the urban expressway diverging area capacity.Lastly,accordingly to the results of multilevel models,the correction factor of passing capacity at urban expressway is developed and discussed.