巴阿关系的囚徒困境及其治理

Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations:The Prisoner's Dilemma and its Solution

巴基斯坦和阿富汗是邻国,两国在地缘、历史和宗教文化上有着密切的联系。在后塔利班时代,巴阿双方曾在政治解决阿富汗问题、共同打击巴阿边境地区的塔利班势力、反恐、阿富汗重建等方面都进行过一些有益的合作,但也因长期存在的历史积怨和现实纠纷,在杜兰线及其引发的普什图尼斯坦问题、边境争端、难民问题、与印度的关系、对待各自境内塔利班的态度等方面进行着长期的博弈,双方之间摩擦和冲突一直不断,致使双方关系因处于"囚徒困境"而缺乏互信,由此制约着巴阿双方进行全面深入的合作。本文认为巴阿关系只有通过重复博弈中的互惠策略在彼此之间建立信任,才有可能打破囚徒困境的局面,在互信的基础上加强双方合作,使巴阿双方从偶然有限的合作转入全面深入的合作。

Pakistan and Afghanistan are two neighboring South Asian countries with deep geographic,historical,religious and cultural connections.In the post-Taliban period,the two countries engaged in wide reaching cooperation to resolve Afghanistan’s political question,to jointly fight Taliban forces in the border area,to engage in counter-terrorism activities and on the reconstruction of Afghanistan.However,due to long term historical rivalries and disputes between the two countries,including the Durand Line and the issue that it provoked around Pashtunistan,the border dispute,refugee issues,relations with India,and their respective attitudes regarding the presence of Taliban within their borders,frictions and conflict between the two states has been continuous.This has resulted in the emergence of a form of prisoner’s dilemma between the two countries,in which they lack trust,which prevents them from engaging in comprehensive and deep cooperation.This article argues that the lack of mutual trust is a result of the two states sliding into a“prisoner’s dilemma”game,and only by adopting a repeated game strategy of win-win can the two states establish the trust needed to enable them to break out of the prisoner’s dilemma.On the basis of mutual trust,the two states can enhance cooperation,and move Afghanistan and Pakistan from a status quo of limited cooperation to one of comprehensive and deep collaboration.