信息化对制造业产出增长的贡献度——基于面板分位数回归的分析

The contribution of informatization to the output growth contribution of manufacture industry——An analysis based on quantile regression of panel data

论文利用2002-2012年投入产出表,通过采用面板分位数回归方法,实证分析了信息化对制造业产出增长的贡献度。研究发现:随着制造业发展水平的提升,信息化贡献度呈现出边际递增效应,尤其当制造业进入高级发展阶段会不断增强对信息化的依赖而降低对资本、劳动要素的依赖,在高级发展阶段信息化对制造业产出增长的贡献度高于正常时期的20%,高于在初级发展阶段下信息化对制造业产出增长作用近200%;从制造业行业异质性特征来看,信息化对先进制造业发展提升的贡献度高于传统制造业,信息化可以优化制造业内部结构,分位数回归进一步揭示了信息化在制造业高级发展阶段中相对传统要素的重要性,未来制造业发展将进入信息密集型和适度资本密集型双轮驱动模式。

This article uses input-output table from 2002-2012 and quantile regression method.and analyzes the contribution of information to manufacture output growth.Research indicates the informatization contribution presents increasing marginal effects with the level of development on the manufacture industry,particularly when manufacture industry in the advanced stage of development will be growing dependence on informatization and reducing dependence on capital and labor elements;as far as the structure of manufacture industry is concerned,the contribution of informatization to output growth in the advanced manufacturing is higher than traditional manufacturing,which can optimize the structure upgrade of manufacture industry,quantile regression further reveal the importance of informatization in the advanced stage of development,the future development of manufacturing will be entering two-wheel driven model relying on information intensive and moderately capital intensive.