基于层次分析法的井筒涌水量预测效果评价

Evaluation of water inflow prediction in wellbore based on the analytic hierarchy process

在实际生产中,井筒涌水量预测误差较大,且影响因素较多,因此难以确定产生误差的主要原因。针对这一情况,本文在系统分析了出现各种误差原因的基础上,利用层次分析法,建立了井筒涌水量预测效果评价指标体系,结合山东龙固矿实例,对该矿井筒涌水量预测效果进行了综合评价。结果表明,该评价体系有较好的适用性和准确性,可以用于井筒涌水量预测效果的评价,对矿井排水系统优化设计具有指导意义。

In the actual production,the prediction of wellbore water inflow has larger deviation and affected by various factors,so the main cause of deviation is difficult to determine.Aiming at this situation,based on the systematic analysis of the causes of various errors,combined with the analytic hierarchy process,the evaluation index system for the prediction of the water inflow of the wellbore is established.Combined with the case of Longgu mine in Shandong province,the predictive effect of water inflow is comprehensively evaluated.The results show that the evaluation system has a good applicability and accuracy,which can be used to evaluate the effect of wellbore water inflow prediction,which is of guiding significance for mine drainage system optimization design.