中国区域经济协调发展的演变特征:空间收敛的视角

The Evolution Trend of China's Coordinated Regional Development:A Spatial Convergence Analysis

区域协调发展战略是贯彻新时期发展理念、建设现代化经济体系的重大战略部署之一。本文使用校准后的城市卫星灯光数据,从空间收敛的视角来分析中国区域协调发展演变特征。结果显示,在考虑空间互动关系的前提下,中国城市经济增长总体上存在绝对收敛和条件收敛,基于不同空间权重的估计结果都支持了这一结论。基于空间溢出的学习效应、分享效应、竞争效应等是不同城市实现经济收敛的内在机制。进一步研究还发现,在过去的20年中,城市群收敛并不是中国俱乐部收敛的普遍现象,俱乐部收敛仅出现在相对富裕的城市群内。但高铁开通后,大多城市群的表现发生了逆转,经济增长基本呈现出收敛的趋势。本文的研究从一个更为客观的视角评估了中国城市层面区域协调发展的空间特征,对当前中国城市群发展战略以及高铁在中国经济的作用有重要启示。

The coordinated regional development strategy is one of the major strategic plans for implementing the thought of development in the new era and building the modern economic system.This paper explores the spatial convergence of urban economic growth in China by the calibrated DMSP/OLS satellite data.The results show that,taking into account the spatial interaction,there is absolute convergence and conditional convergence in China's urban economic growth.The learning effect,sharing effect and competing effect based on spatial spillover are the internal mechanisms to achieve economic convergence in different cities.The results from different spatial weights support our finding.Further estimation shows that the convergence in city clusters is not a common phenomenon of club convergence in China during the past 20 years.Club convergence only occurs in relatively rich city clusters.However,we find that the performance of most city clusters has been reversed and there is an economic convergence trend after the opening of high-speed rail lines.This study reveals the economic gap of Chinese cities from a more objective perspective which has important implications for the current development strategy of China.s urban clusters and the impact of HSR on Chinese economy.