绿箱补贴对农业生产率、生产以及国际贸易的影响

Effect of Green Box Subsidies on Agricultural Productivity,Production and International Trade

对发达国家绿箱补贴的生产和贸易扭曲效应提供了实证依据。回顾了理论和实证文献,认为绿箱补贴是通过增加风险承担能力、抬高土地价格、增加信贷、提升劳动参与率和期望对生产和贸易产生影响。利用数据包络分析对26个国家1995-2007年间绿箱补贴对农业生产率和技术效率的影响进行了估算。利用农业贸易政策模拟模型估算2007年美国与欧盟各自削减40%、50%绿箱补贴的影响;在2001年的水平上估算设置绿箱补贴上限的影响。考虑到2000年以来绿箱补贴大量和持续增长,提出了关于约束绿箱补贴的原则。

The paper provides empirical evidence for the production and trade distorting effect of green box subsidies in developed countries.It reviews the theoretical and empirical literature,and considers that green box subsidies have impact on production and trade by increasing risk-bearing capacity,raising land price,increasing credit,enhancing labor participation rate and expectation.Data envelopment analysis(DEA)was used to estimate the impact of green box subsidies on agricultural productivity and technical efficiency in 26 countries from 1995 to 2007.Using the Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model to estimate the impact of the US and the European Union in 2007 on the reduction of 40 per cent and 50 per cent green box subsidies;the impact of the green box subsidies cap was estimated at the 2001 level.Considering the substantial and incessant rise in the green box subsidies since 2000,the principle of restricting green box subsidy is proposed.