中国劳动力为何跨出国门?——基于1995～2015年国际劳务合作面板数据的分析

Why does China's labor force go abroad?——An Analysis Based on 1995～2015 International Service Cooperation Panel Data

1995~2015年面板数据分析表明,工资水平、人口、劳动力、城市化、人均GDP、投资和国际贸易、产业结构和地理区位因素不同程度地影响了中国跨国劳动力的流向和规模。尽管20年来中国工资增长率、老龄化和城市化速度都快于全球平均水平,但与发达经济体仍有差距,劳动力外向流动的动力依然存在。对外投资和进口增长会促进劳动力流动,未来中国海外投资总量和进口份额的提升将加大劳动力迈出国门的步伐。工业部门劳动力需求目前仍是影响中国劳动力跨国流动的重要因素,但随着服务业劳动力需求的增长和中国工业化进入中后期,未来中国跨国劳动力将更多流向服务业部门。对此,中国需要充分利用劳动力总量优势,改善结构劣势,借助对外投资和服务贸易契机,扩大劳动力跨国流动渠道,同时加强劳动力教育和培训,提升就业层次。

The 1995~2015 panel data analysis shows that the wage level,population and labor scale,urbanization,per capita GDP,investment and international trade,industrial structure and geographical factors influence the direction and scale of Chinese labor transaction.Although China’s wage growth rate,aging rate and urbanization rate were faster than the global average in the past twenty years,there is still a gap with developed economies,and the momentum of outward labor flow still exists.FDI and import growth will promote the flow of labor,and the future growth of China’s FDI and import will increase the pace of the labor force to go abroad.The industrial sector’s labor demand is still affecting Chinese labor trans.action,but when China enters the phase of mid-and post-industrialization and the other countries’labor demand of service industries grows,more Chinese labor will flow to service sector in labor demand countries.In this regard,China should make full use of labor force aggregate advantage to improve the structure disadvantage,expand international labor flow channels by means of FDI and service trade opportunities,and strengthen education and training to enhance the level of em.ployment.