人口老龄化、生育率与人力资本投资——基于世代交叠模型及中国省级面板数据的经验分析

Population Aging,Fertility Rate and Human Capital Investment:Empirical Analysis of Provincial Panel Data Based on Generation Overlap Model

目前人口老龄化和生育率波动导致人口年龄结构的变化进而对人力资本投资产生影响。基于生命周期理论,围绕人口老龄化、生育率变动与人力资本投资之间的关系,构建三期世代交叠模型,从理论层面分析了人口老龄化如何影响中国家庭的储蓄、消费、健康和教育人力资本投资决策,并选取1997~2016年我国30个省(市、自治区)面板数据进行实证分析和计量检验。经验研究发现:(1)生育率的下降会使家庭增加对孩子的教育和健康人力资本投资;(2)人口老龄化的加速并不会降低家庭对孩子的教育和健康人力资本投资。针对我国"老龄化"和"少子化"并存的人口结构,我国应该从健康和教育两个方面提升人力资本投资。

At present,the changes of population age structure caused by population aging and the fluctuation of fertility rate have an impact on human capital investment.Based on the life-cycle theory,this paper constructs a three-generation overlapping model based on the relationship between population aging,changes in fertility rate and human capital invest?ment.It analyzes how the population aging affects the Chinese family’s saving,consumption,Health and education human capital investment decision-making,and selected from 1997 to 2015 in 30 provinces(municipalities and autonomous re?gions)panel data for empirical analysis and measurement tests.Empirical studies have found that:(1)Declining fertility will increase family education and health human capital investment in children;(2)Accelerating population aging will not reduce family education and healthy human capital investment in children.Aiming at the coexistence of population structure of“aging”and“declining birthrate”in our country,our country should improve human capital investment from two aspects of health and education.