财政补充养老保险:相机补充还是必要补充?

Supplementing the Pension System by Government Revenue:Opportunistic Supplement or Essential Supplement?

随着人口老龄化的加快,我国养老保险缺口问题日益突出,而财政补充是解决养老保险缺口压力最小的一种工具。本文建立了相机财政补充和必要财政补充两种原则下的一般均衡模型研究养老保险缺口的财政补充问题。研究发现:在相机补充原则下,统筹账户缴费率上升会使财政补充下降,个人账户缴费率和所得税上升对财政补充的影响取决于人口、工资和遗产等因素,人口老龄化并不总会使财政补充上升,但生育率上升一定会使财政补充下降;但在必要补充原则下,统筹账户缴费率的上升并不总会使财政补充下降,而个人账户缴费率和所得税率的上升则会使财政补充上升。参数模拟结果显示,无论哪种财政补充原则,养老保险缺口的概率大于结余的概率,但相机财政补充原则下的补充金额期望小于必要补充原则下的期望。

With the deficiency of pension system has been increasingly severe,as the least troublesome instrument,supplementing pension system by revenue has been an important way to solve the pension trouble.We developed a general equilibrium model to discuss how much should the government supplement pension system under rule of opportunistic supplement and essential supplement.The results show that:under the rule of opportunistic supplement,opportunistic supplement was negatively related to premium of Pay-As-You-Go account and fertility,but variably related to personal account,income tax or degree of population ageing;however,under the rule of essential supplement,essential supplement was positively related to premium of personal account,income tax rate or degree of population ageing,but negatively related to fertility and variably related to premium of Pay-As-You-Go account.The result of simulation shows that,the probability of deficiency of pension system was greater than the probability of balance under whatever rules,but under rule of opportunistic supplement,the expectation of supplement may be less.