基于SDSM模型的博斯腾湖流域水资源变化模拟

SDSM-based Simulation of Water Resources Variation in Bositeng Lake Catchment

全球气候变暖对陆地水循环会产生重大影响,统计降尺度方法是解决大尺度气候信息和小尺度水文响应的空间尺度不匹配问题的有效方法之一。文章采用SPEI指数与SDSM(Statistical Down-Scaling Model)方法,进行流域气候变化特征量的降尺度研究。结果表明:近50 a来,塔里木河流域SPEI指数呈显著上升趋势并在1986年发生突变;博斯腾湖水位变化与流域SPEI指数变化具有一致性,湖水位在1955—1986年以下降为主,1987—2002年以上升为主;SDSM模型的气温模拟能力较好,对日降水的模拟值偏小,未来日均、日最高气温在A2、B2两种情景下均呈上升趋势,日最低气温在B2情景下呈下降趋势;2种情景下的年降水量在2020年和2030年均呈下降趋势;在A2情景下,开都河出山口日径流量呈下降趋势;在B2情景下,日径流量在2010年时段呈增加趋势,在2020年和2030年呈持续下降趋势。

The global climate warming largely impacts water circulation on land.The statistical down-scaling model method(SDSM meth od)is one of the effective ways to handle the mismatching between the large-scaling climate data and the small-scaling hydrological re sponse in space scaling.The SPEI index and the SDSM method in the paper are applied to study the climate variation features of the catchment in term of down scaling.The study presents that the SPEI index in the Tarim river catchment is in tendency of increasing in re cent 50 a and varied abruptly in 1986.The water level variation in the Bositeng lake is in consistence with the SPEI index variation in the catchment.The water level in the lake mainly decreased in 1955 through 1986;increased in 1987 through 2002.Temperature is well sim ulated by SDSM model.But the daily precipitation simulated by the model is low extremely.The future average daily temperature and maximum daily temperature both are increasing in tendency in case of A2 and B2.The minimum daily temperature decreasing in case of B2.Under both cases,the average precipitation in 2020 and 2030 decrease in tendency.In case of A2,the daily runoff of the Kaidu Riv er from the mountain outlet decrease in tendency;in case of B2,it increased in 2010 but decreases in 2020 and 2030.