养老保险缴费率、公共教育投资与养老金替代率

Pension Contribution Rate,Public Educational Investment and Pension Replacement Rate

本文通过构建一个世代交迭模型,考虑公共教育与现收现付养老保险之间蕴含的代际转移关系对物质资本和人力资本积累的影响,研究了公共教育税率和养老保险缴费率对经济增长和养老金替代率的影响,并结合中国实际情况,进行了数值模拟和稳健性分析。本文发现:公共教育税率与养老保险缴费率之间存在一个最优组合,可以同时实现经济增长和提高养老金替代率;提高养老保险缴费率会对经济增长产生不利影响,而养老保险缴费率与养老金替代率之间呈现明显的倒U型关系。数值模拟结果表明:在目前条件下,中国政府只有在降低养老保险缴费率的同时,加大公共教育投资,才有可能实现促进经济增长和维持养老金替代率不变两大目标。

In this paper,we construct a generational overlapping model with an intergenerational transfer relationship between public education and pay-as-you-go pension in order to study the influence of public education tax and pension contribution rate on economic growth and pension replacement rate.We also carry out numerical simulations and robustness analysis,combined with the actual situation in China.In theory,we find that there exists an optimal combination of public education tax and pension contribution rate to achieve a high economic growth and,at the same time,increase the pension replacement rate.The results also show that an increase in pension contribution rate produces a significantly adverse effect on economic growth,while this rate and pension replacement rate present an obvious inversed-U relationship.The results of the numerical simulations indicate that it is very difficult for China to promote economic growth and simultaneously keep its pension replacement rate constant by decreasing the pension contribution rate.It is possible for China to achieve the two aforementioned objectives by increasing investment in public education,while decreasing the pension contribution rate.