楚雄州1971―2016年极端气温变化特征分析

A Study on the Characteristics of Extreme Temperatures in Chuxiong Prefecture between 1971 and 2016

为深入认识全球气候变暖背景下楚雄州极端气温的变化特征和趋势,根据10站点1971～2016年气温观测资料,采用线性倾向估计和相关性检验,分析当地年、季极端最高(低)气温的变化特点及其与气候变暖的关系。结果表明:最近46年楚雄州极端最高(低)气温、平均气温年值均呈升温趋势,升温速率表现为极端最低气温>极端最高气温>年平均气温,低温升温对气候变暖的贡献较大;冬、春季变暖更明显,气候变暖中冬春季冷事件减少比高温事件增多更值得关注;年极端最高气温5月出现频次大,而多数站累年极端最高气温出现在6月,与当地干、雨季节分明、雨季开始期典型偏晚且年际波动大有关;极端最低气温多出现在1月或12月,主要与当地寒潮天气和强寒潮出现频率的时间分布有关。

Based on the data of 10-station observational temperature during 1971―2016,the variation characteristics of the annual mean temperature and the maximum(minimum)temperature in Chuxiong Prefecture along with their relationship with climate warming are studied through estimating the linear trends and correlation test,in expectation of obtaining the features and the variation trends of extreme temperature in Chuxiong against the backdrop of global warming.The results present that the maximum(minimum)and annual temperature in Chuxiong Prefecture showed increasing trends in the last 46 years,with the linear heating rates in a decreasing order being as follow:minimum temperature>maximum temperature>annual mean temperature.The increasing of minimum temperature contributed most to climate warming and the warming in winter and spring was more significant.The fact that cold events decreased in winter and spring were more prominent than the increase in high temperature events.The annual extreme high temperature appeared in May with the largest frequency while the extreme high temperature of accumulated years for most stations occurred in June,which associated with the conspicuous alternation of local dry and rain seasons,late rainy season onset as well as its significant interannual fluctuations.