中国省际FDI、金融市场发展与经济增长——基于空间面板杜宾模型的再检验

China's Inter-provincial FDI,Financial Market Development and Economic Growth——Based on the Retest of Spatial Panel Durbin Model

现阶段,经济增长进入新常态,FDI首次出现净流出,重新研究FDI和经济增长的关系,以及金融市场对FDI经济增长效应的影响深具意义。考虑到中国地区差异明显,将FDI、金融市场发展和经济增长纳入空间计量分析框架,采用空间杜宾模型对1999-2016年中国省际面板数据进行实证研究。研究结果发现:我国省际FDI存在显著的经济增长效应,同时在东部地区和西部地区FDI还存在空间溢出效应;金融市场发展无法对本地区经济增长产生贡献,同时还会恶化邻接地区的经济增长;东部地区的金融市场可以强化FDI的经济增长效应,而中西部地区的金融市场则是削弱FDI的经济增长效应。因此,当前我国FDI政策的制定应当充分考虑与国内金融市场的互动及其在地理上的空间溢出影响,注重区域协调发展,同时提高我国金融市场资金分配效率。

At the present stage,economic growth has entered a new normal,and FDI has experienced net outflows for the first time,it is of great significance to restudy the relationship between FDI and economic growth and the influence of financial market on the growth effect of FDI economy.Taking into account the obvious differences in China,this paper puts FDI,financial market development and economic growth into the spatial econometric analysis framework,and uses the spatial Durbin model to carry out an empirical study on the interprovincial panel data of China in 1999-2016 years.The results are as follows:(1)there is a significant economic growth effect in China’s inter provincial FDI,and there is also a spatial spillover effect in the eastern and western regions;(2)the development of the financial market can not contribute to the economic growth of the region,and will also deteriorate the economic growth in the adjacent areas;(3)the financial market in the eastern region can strengthen the economic growth effect of FDI,while the financial market in the central and western regions will weaken the economic growth effect of FDI.Therefore,at present,the formulation of China’s FDI policy should fully consider the interaction with the domestic financial market and its geographical spillover,focus on regional coordinated development,and improve the efficiency of financial market funds distribution in our country.