上海新能源交通与空气污染治理——投入成本-减排收益的视角

Shanghai New Energy Transportation and Air Pollution Control from the Perspective of Input Cost——Emission Reduction Benefit

通过测算得到上海市社会整体使用纯电动汽车可节约成本与获得虚拟收益之和,得出发展纯电动汽车可为社会带来巨大收益的结论。方法:针对上海市政府、公共交通部门、私人交通这3个主体,以年为单位,运用虚拟数据定量分析法,估算社会使用纯电动汽车为政府减排所节约的空气治理成本(即虚拟收益)、公交公司与个人消费者在碳排放市场通过减排碳交易所获得的虚拟收益。同时,运用数据对比分析法,分别对比纯电动汽车与传统燃油汽车在初置成本与运营成本上的差异,得出社会整体使用纯电动汽车与传统燃油汽车的成本收益对比。结果:现有文献针对新能源汽车的研究多侧重于政策与专业技术,尚未有以社会为整体作为研究对象测算新能源汽车成本收益的研究,通过测算得到上海市社会整体使用纯电动汽车可节约成本与获得虚拟收益之和达279亿。结论:纯电动汽车的发展不仅可改善环境,更为社会带来巨大的收益。

To obtain the sum of the cost savings and the virtual income obtained from the use of battery electric vehicles in Shanghai as a whole,the paper concluded that the development of battery electric vehicles can bring huge benefits to society.Based on the three entities of the Shanghai government,public transportation departments,and private transportation,the paper used the annual quantitative data analysis method to estimate the air treatment costs(i.e.,virtual revenue)saved by the society using battery electric vehicles,bus companies and individual consumers in the carbon emissions market through the carbon emission reductions in the virtual income.At the same time,using the data comparison analysis method,comparing the difference between the initial cost and operating cost of battery electric vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles,the cost-benefit ratio of the overall use of pure electric vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles was compared.The results show that the research on the new energy vehicles in the existing literature focuses on policies and professional technologies;there is no research on the whole society as the research object to measure the cost and benefits of new energy vehicles;it is estimated that the overall use of battery electric vehicles in Shanghai can save energy.The sum of cost-saving and virtual gain of battery electric vehicles reached 27.9 billion.It is concluded that the development of battery electric vehicles not only improves the environment,but also brings huge benefits to society.