汇改、流动性和人民币实际汇率波动

Exchange Rate Reform,Liquidity and RMB Real Exchange Rate Fluctuation

在宏微观一致的分析框架下建立了一个实际汇率的决定模型,基于理论模型和国内外的现实进行扩展,实证检验了五类因素对人民币实际汇率波动的影响。结果表明,人民币汇率形成机制改革对人民币实际汇率波动具有最强的解释力,贸易条件和相对流动性次之,相对生产率由于BS效应在中国的传导渠道不畅因而对人民币实际汇率波动的解释力有限,净外部资产的解释力最弱,仅能引起人民币实际汇率小幅波动。结论认为,目前人民币不适合施行过度自由的浮动弹性,应继续渐进放开弹性以保持实际汇率相对稳定,货币政策、产业结构优化政策都可以成为调节人民币实际汇率的手段。

The paper establishes a model of real exchange rate decision under the macro and micro consistent analysis framework.Based on the theoretical model and realities at home and abroad to expand,the paper makes an empirical test about the five factors impacting on the RMB real exchange rate fluctuation.The results show that the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform has strongest explanatory power for the RMB real exchange rate fluctuation,terms of trade and relative money supply have the second explanatory power,relative productivity’s explanatory power is limited because the channel of B-S effect is not smooth in China,net foreign assets have the weakest explanatory power and can only lead to real exchange rate fluctuate slightly.The paper concludes that the RMB was not suitable for excessive free-floating,progressive flexibility should con thnue be released to maintain the RMB real exchange rate relatively stable.Monetary policy and industrial structure optimization policy can become a means of real exchange rate adjustment.