基于GM(1,1)模型的变压器故障分析研究

Analysis of Transformer Fault Based on GM(1,1)

通过建立基于灰色系统GM(1,1)理论的变压器故障预测模型,结合三比值法对变压器故障进行预测。对比预测结果和现场情况来看,预测较为准确,可以作为一定的理论依据。但是由于GM(1,1)本身的精度问题,只能进行短期预测。

Combined with three-ratio method,transformer fault has been predicted by transformer fault prediction model based on grey system GM(1,1).Comparing prediction results with on-site situation,the prediction is more accurate and can be used as a theoretical basis.However,only short-term can be made due to the accuracy of GM(1,1)itself.