基于蒙特卡罗模拟的汽车铸造作业粉尘健康损害评价

Health Damage Assessment of Automobile Foundry Dust Based on Monte Carlo Simulation Method

为评估汽车铸造作业环境中粉尘对各工种的影响,基于美国环保署的健康风险和健康损害量化评价方法,构建了铸造作业粉尘健康损害评价模型。运用模特卡罗模拟方法评价了配砂、清理、造型、制芯、熔化和浇注6个工种的粉尘健康风险和健康损害,并对各参数进行敏感性分析。结果表明,熔化和清理工种的健康风险最大,浇注和配砂工种次之,造型和制芯工种最小;除造型工种外,其他5个工种健康风险超过10-6的概率均在70%~90%;在影响健康风险的各因素中,平均暴露时间、暴露周期、呼吸速率和各工种粉尘质量浓度这4个参数具有高敏感度,对评价结果有决定性作用;清理工种总的健康损害值最高,受粉尘总的影响程度最大,其伤残调整寿命年的平均值为48.64 a。

In order to evaluate the impact of dust on various works in the automotive foundry environment,the health damage assessment model of dust in the foundry work was constructed based on the health risk assessment method and the quantitative assessment of the health damage.The health risk and health damage of dust on six types of works were evaluated using the Monte Carlo simulation method,and sensitive parameters were identified by sensitivity analysis.The results showed that melting and cast shakeout and finishing were explored to the highest health risk,pouring and sand preparation followed and the last were moulding and core-making.In addition to modeling,the probability of health risks for the other five works exceeding 10^-6 was 70%~90%;sensitivity analysis indicated that the average exposure time,exposure period,respiration rate and dust concentration of various works had great sensitivity and had a decisive effect on the evaluation results.For cast shakeout and finishing,the total health damage value and the total impact were the largest and the average value of disability-adjusted life years was 48.64 a.