2017年中国成品油供求分析及展望

2017 China's Oil Products Supply-demand Analysis and Prospect for 2018

2017年我国汽油需求增长放缓,柴油消费回暖,煤油消费保持增长,成品油出口规模进一步扩大,突破4 000万吨大关,再创历史新高。但受国内需求旺盛、国家政策管控、出口基础设施瓶颈等因素影响,出口增速大幅放缓,同比增长7.3%,远低于2016年同期增长50.3%的水平。展望2018年,我国炼油一次加工能力继续增长,汽油需求增速将继续放缓,柴油需求将回归下跌,航煤需求仍会保持较快增长,成品油出口将进一步扩大,跨区贸易成为趋势,将对亚太乃至全球成品油贸易格局产生重要影响。

In 2017,China's gasoline demand growth slowed down,diesel oil consumption rebounded,kerosene consumption kept growth,and the export of oil products further increased,breaking through 40 million tons,setting a new historical record.But affected by bloom domestic demand,national policy control,export infrastructure bottleneck and other factors,export growth rate sharply slowed down,increasing 7.3%year-on-year,which was than 50.3%of a year earlier.Looking into 2018,China's refining primary processing capacity will continue to increase,gasoline demand growth rate will continue to slow down,diesel oil demand will return to decline,aviation kerosene demand will still keep rapid growth,oil products export will further enlarge,and cross-region trade is becoming a trend,generating important influence upon the oil products trade layout of the Asian-Pacific region or even the whole world.