贵州省农业现代化和农业开放度对农民收入的影响分析

Impact of agricultural modernization and agricultural openness on farmers' income in Guizhou Province

【目的】明确贵州省农业现代化和农业开放度与农民收入是否存在长期均衡关系,以及农业现代化和农业开放度影响农民收入的路径与力度,为贵州省农民收入增长提供理论依据。【方法】选取1998~2015年的贵州省统计年鉴数据,运用协整理论和误差修正模型实证分析贵州省农业现代化和农业开放度对农民收入增长的长期影响和短期冲击。【结果】贵州省农业现代化和农业开放度与农民收入存在长期动态的均衡关系;农业现代化和农业开放度均是贵州省农民收入的格兰杰(Granger)原因;误差修正模型显示,系统的短期偏离将会通过-0.522272的调整力度向长期均衡调整;长期来看,农业开放度提升、农业现代化发展对农民收入的拉动作用将趋于稳定,且农业开放度对农民收入增加的贡献率强于农业现代化。【建议】贵州省应不断加大政府对农业投入,推进农业现代化发展;不断拓展国际市场,提升农产品开放水平;发挥特色农业,实现农业现代化与农业开放融合发展,以促进农民收入的持续稳定增长。

【Objective】The long-term equilibrium relationship between agricultural modernization and farmers’income,between agricultural openness and farmers’income in Guizhou Province was analyzed,path and strength of agricultural modernization and agricultural openness affecting farmers’income were studied.Then the present research provided a theoretical basis for the farmers’income growth in Guizhou Province.【Method】Based on the statistical yearbook data of Guizhou Province from 1998 to 2015,the cointegration theory and error correction model were used to empirically analyze the long-term impact and short-term impact of agricultural modernization and agricultural openness on the growth of farmers’income in Guizhou Province.【Result】The result found that there was a long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship between agricultural modernization and farmer’s income,between agricultural openness and farmer’s income in Guizhou Province,and both of agricultural modernization and agricultural openness were the Granger reasons for farmers’income.The error correction model showed that,the short-term deviation of the system would be adjusted by the adjustment of(-0.522272)to a long-term equilibrium.In the long term,the driving force of improving agricultural openness and agricultural modernization for farmers’income would be stable,and the contribution of agricultural openness to agricultural openness was stronger than agricultural modernization.【Suggestion】Guizhou Province should continue to increase government investment in agriculture,promote the development of agricultural modernization;expand the international market,increase the level of opening up of agricultural products;develop featured agriculture,realize the integration of agricultural modernization and open agriculture,and promote the sustainable and stable growth of farmers’income.