从奥巴马到特朗普:美国对华“对冲战略”的演变

From Obama to Trump: the Evolution of the U.S. “Hedging Strategy” towards China

冷战后美国一直在摸索应对中国崛起的最佳战略。在小布什政府"遏制+接触"战略的基础上,奥巴马政府逐渐对华形成了"强协同—强对抗"型"对冲战略"。特朗普当选总统后再次对美国对华政策进行了一系列调整,这些调整并不意味着"对冲战略"的终结,而是对奥巴马政府对华"对冲战略"的"批判性"继承,是美国对华战略逐步调整、演进过程中的一次最新尝试。随着中美实力地位差距进一步缩小和美国对华疑虑急剧增加,特朗普政府对华战略已逐渐向"弱协同—强对抗"型"对冲战略"演变,具有向对抗性战略演变的趋势,中美关系也可能因此面临比奥巴马政府时期更为强劲的下行压力。短期来看,特朗普政府尚不具备与中国彻底决裂的外在条件和内部动力,美国的国内外状况和双方高度相关的利益基础使得双边关系仍具有"竞而不破"的可能。从长期来看,美国对华战略的走向并不仅仅取决于美国,也取决于中国的应对态度和方式,中国在塑造中美关系中的作用将变得更为重要。

The United States has continuously been exploring the best strategy for dealing with a rising China since the end of the Cold War.Since Donald Trump became the U.S.President,he has made a series of adjustments in the U.S.foreign policy towards China.This article argues that the Trump administration's China strategy is a"critical"succession to the"hedging strategy"of the Obama Administration,which could be considered as a new attempt in the gradual adjustment and evolution of the U.S.strategy towards China.However,because of the further narrowing relative strength gap between China and the U.S.and the sharp decline of Washington's trust in Beijing,the type of U.S."hedging strategy"under the Trump administration has changed to"Weak Coordination and Strong Confrontation,"which demonstrates a tendency of evolving to a confrontational strategy.