出口产品分散化与汇率制度选择

Export Product Diversification and Exchange Rate Regime Choice

本文利用国际货币基金组织基于产品层面测算的出口分散化数据集,以72个发展中国家为样本(1974-2010年),从产品层面考察了总体、扩展边际和集约边际的出口分散化对汇率制度选择的影响。研究发现,总体和集约边际的出口分散化并不显著影响发展中国家的汇率制度选择;但扩展边际的出口分散化显著影响发展中国家的汇率制度选择:扩展边际的出口分散化程度越高,发展中国家越可能选择更有弹性的汇率制度。在考虑了不同的汇率制度分类方法、样本期设定及内生性问题等情况下,本文结论依然成立。

Drawing on the dataset of export product diversification developed by the IMF,this paper makes the first attempt in the empirical literature to test the impact of export product diversification,including both extensive and intensive margins,on the choice of exchange-rate regimes over a sample of 72 developing countries(1974-2010).It is found that neither overall export product diversification nor the intensive margin has a significant impact on the exchange rate regime choices of developing countries.However,export product diversification in the extensive margin does exert a statistically positive effect on exchange-rate regime choices,implying that a more diversified economy along the extensive margin is more likely to be a non-fixer.The evidence is robust across a series of robustness tests including alternative exchange rate regime classifications,IV regressions and variants of sample settings.