农业保险保障水平的影响因素及提升策略

Agricultural Insurance's Protection Level: Its Determinants and Development Strategy

保障水平不足一直是中国农业保险的短板。随着中国农产品价格形成机制和收储制度改革的深入,各界对农业保险作用的期许不断加大,在此背景下,如何提高农业保险保障水平成为亟待解决的重大课题。本文从辨析农业保险保障水平的概念入手,利用合约设计理论和蒙特卡罗模拟技术,从理论和实证两个方面对如何提升中国农业保险保障水平进行分析和论证。研究发现:提升农业保险保障水平不能仅关注提高农业保险保额或扩充保险责任,而应从农业保险合约设计的角度来考量;保额并不是影响农业保险保障水平的唯一因素,在中国现有农业保险合约下,保额的提高并不必然带来农业保险保障水平的提升,相对免赔率和分阶段赔付系数是影响中国农业保险保障水平的重要因素,它们比保额的影响更显著;取消或调整分阶段赔付规定是现阶段提升农业保险保障水平的有效方式。本文研究结论对于提升中国农业保险保障水平以及今后完善农业保险合约设计都具有指导意义。

This article investigates the ways to enhance agricultural insurance’s protection level(AIPL)by using an insurance policy design theory and a Monte Carlo simulation method.The results suggest that,first of all,it is necessary to pay attention to the policy design to enhance AIPL,instead of merely highlighting the liability.Second,liability is not the only factor that affects AIPL,and the terms do not always generate positive impacts as it was previously thought to be.Third,franchise deductible and the coefficient of“staged payment”are two critical parameters that affect crop insurance’s protection level,and they have a stronger correlation with AIPL than liability.Fourth,it would be an effective way to cancel or revise the“staged payment”rule,in order to raise the AIPL in China.These conclusions may seem counter-intuitive,but they provide significant implications for improving the AIPL and policy design in China.