浅析全球炼油业产能建设最后一个大周期

A Brief Analysis on the Last Major Cycle of Global Refining Capacity Construction

当前全球新一轮能源革命正在兴起,传统以化石能源为主的全球能源体系正面临着前所未有的挑战。综合各层面考虑,2035年前后全球很可能迎来石油需求峰值。从炼油业来看,世界炼油业诞生至今已有近160年历史,经历了从简单到复杂、从低级到高级、从小规模粗放型到大规模集约型的发展过程,呈现较强的周期性特征。结合石油需求峰值变化,从中长期来看,新千年至2035年前后可能是全球炼油业产能建设最后一个大周期。2035年之前,全球新增炼油能力有所放缓,但总体仍保持增长态势;2035年之后,全球难有大规模炼油项目投产,主要是一些小型或者低端落后项目改扩建以及精细化工项目等。

Currently,as a new wave of global energy revolution is rising,traditional energy system with fossil energy as the mainstay is facing unprecedented challenges.Taken all together,the world petroleum demand is likely to peak around 2035.As to refining industry,world refining industry has a history of nearly 160 years since its birth,and has experienced a development course from simple to complex,from low-grade to high-grade,and from small-scale and extensive-type to large-scale and intensive-type,presenting relatively strong periodic characteristics.Combining with the change of petroleum demand peak in medium and long term,the new millennium to around 2035 may be the last major cycle of global refining industry capacity construction.Global refining industry will see slowing new capacity addition while still eking out growth as a whole before 2035,but will see few large-scale refining projects after 2035,but some small-scale or upgrading projects as well as fine chemical projects.