财政整顿、“双支柱”政策与最优政策选择

Fiscal Consolidation, “Double Pillar” Policy and the Optimal Economic Policy

政府债务的应对规则及其背后的金融风险问题,在现有的动态随机一般均衡模型中往往被忽视。基于经典的NK-DSGE模型,本文将财政压力、财政整顿特征纳入到金融系统中,通过一般均衡的视角讨论经济政策的宏观效应,进而讨论不同政府宏观管理目标下的最优政策选择。研究发现:中国扩张性财政支出的经济效应显著。然而,政府债务规模增加,不仅造成财政空间缩减,抑制扩张性财政政策的有效性,也会影响金融市场的定价机制;财政整顿规则能够减弱扩张性财政支出的负面效应,提升扩张性财政政策的增长效应;"宏观审慎双支柱+财政整顿政策"不仅继承了原有"宏观审慎双支柱"政策的优势,同时还能充分利用经济周期性上行,降低政府债务规模,确保赤字和债务进入稳定的下行通道,预留财政空间;"宏观审慎双支柱+财政整顿政策"组合显著优于"宏观审慎双支柱政策",表明仅仅依靠宏观审慎工具来解决金融不稳定可能还不够谨慎;设置纳入财政整顿特征的"大宏观审慎政策",将消除或减弱经济摩擦对经济的扭曲,使经济达到有效均衡状态,从根本上提高社会福利水平。

The control rule for government debt and the financial risk are often ignored in the existing dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models.Based on the classical NK-DSGE model,this paper incorporates fiscal pressure and fiscal consolidation into the financial system,and discusses the macro effect of economic policy through a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model.Further,this paper discusses the optimal policy under different government macro management objectives.It was found in this paper that,firstly,China’s expansionary fiscal expenditure has a remarkable effect of counter-cyclical regulation.However,the increase of government debt scale not only leads to the reduction of fiscal space,but also inhibits the effectiveness of the fiscal reverse cycle policy,and will also affect the pricing mechanism of the financial market.Secondly,the rules of fiscal consolidation have negative effects of weakening expansionary fiscal expenditure,and enhance the economic effect of fiscal policy’s counter-cyclical regulation.Thirdly,the mix of macro prudential policy and fiscal consolidation not only inherits the advantages of the original macro prudential policy,but also makes full use of the economic cyclical uplink,reduces the scale of government debt,ensures that the deficit and debt enter a stable downlink channel and reserve fiscal space.Fourthly,the mix of macro prudential policy and fiscal consolidation is better than macro prudential policy.That indicates it may not be enough to rely solely on macro prudential tools to solve financial instability.Finally,the extended macro prudential policy with fiscal consolidation will eliminate or weaken economic frictions or economic distortions.It will make the economy achieve an effective balance,and fundamentally improve social welfare.