产业政策、资本配置效率与企业全要素生产率——基于中国2009年十大产业振兴规划自然实验的经验研究

Industrial Policy, Efficiency of Capital Allocation and Firm's Total Factor Productivity——Evidence from a Natural Experiment in China

近年来,如何有效提升全要素生产率以促进经济高质量发展,成为社会各界关注的焦点。本文以中国2009年十大产业振兴规划出台为自然实验,运用双重差分法考察选择性产业政策对企业全要素生产率的影响。实证结果显示:与对照组相比,十大产业振兴规划这一冲击导致实验组企业的全要素生产率显著下降;而且与选择性产业政策主要通过政府直接干预手段发挥作用的经济直觉一致。基于地区和所有制视角的分组检验显示:(1)与政府干预程度较弱地区相比,政府干预程度较强地区企业受产业政策影响相对更大;(2)与非国有企业相比,国有企业受产业政策影响相对更大。进一步研究表明,与对照组企业相比,产业政策冲击导致实验组企业投资对投资机会的敏感程度下降,而且该效应对地方政府干预程度较强地区及国有企业而言更为显著。这揭示出十大产业振兴规划的出台通过资本配置效率渠道对企业全要素生产率施加了影响。本文不仅识别出十大产业振兴规划出台与全要素生产率之间的因果关系,有助于厘清产业政策导致实际经济效应的作用机理,而且对进一步理顺政府与市场的关系以促进企业全要素生产率提升和经济高质量发展具有重要启示意义。

In recent years,how to effectively enhance productivity to promote economic high-quality development has become the focus in China.We address the issue in the perspective of industrial policy,and consider how the Revitalization Plan of Ten Industries in 2009 affects total factor productivity(TFP)of enterprises.Using difference-in-difference method,we observe that the industrial policy shock leads to a significant decrease in firms’productivity.Furthermore,selective industrial policy works mainly through directly government intervention consistent with the economic intuition,group testing shows that our results are much stronger in the following two cases:①in the regions with stronger government intervention;②for the state-owned enterprises.Moreover,our study shows that the industrial policy has exerted influence on the TFP of enterprises through the channel of capital allocation.Our paper identifies the causal relationship between the Revitalization Plan of Ten Industries and total factor productivity and helps to clarify the mechanism of the actual economic effects of industrial policies.These results have important implications to enhance firms’productivity and improve the quality of economic development.