气象灾害风险评估业务发展研究

Research on the Business Development of Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment

根据气象灾害特点,对灾害风险评估的概念进行了再认识,分析比较了气象灾害与其他自然灾害(地震、地质灾害)风险评估的不同特点,气象灾害由于可预报性,其风险评估的应用范围更广、业务化能力相对更强;继而以浙江省为例,分析了防灾减灾以及主要行业的需求,以需求为牵引,分析了气象灾害风险评估的业务分类,提出了适应气象监测预报能力的五种风险评估服务产品。针对服务产品类型、空间精度、评估精度等开展了需求调查分析,结果表明:五种风险评估产品都有需求,其中实时综合类风险评估产品需求最大,灾后评估产品需求最小;空间尺度以县(市、区)和乡镇(街道)为单位的需求最大,其次以格点为单位;目前半定量化的"等级"评估精度基本满足服务需求,尚不具有一定精度的定量风险评估需求并不大。最后根据发展目标,架构了气象灾害风险评估的科学研究框架,提出了主要研究内容,初步分析了关键技术及解决方案。

The concept of disaster risk assessment is revisited in this paper according to characteristics of meteorological disasters.Risk assessment of meteorological disasters and other forms of natural disasters such as earthquakes or geological disasters is also compared.Because of predictability of meteorological disasters,its risk assessment has a wide range of applications for business.The demand for meteorological risk assessment with a focus on disaster prevention and mitigation for major industries in Zhejiang province was analysed in this research.The business of meteorological disaster risk assessment can be classified as static risk assessment and real time risk assessment based on the demand.Five kinds of service products about the risk assessment,which can be adapted to the capacity for weather monitoring and forecasting,are proposed in this paper.A survey of requirements for product types,spatial resolution,accuracy,etc.indicated that the five kinds of service products for meteorological risk assessment were required at difference levels,with the most important requirement for products being real-time comprehensive risk assessment,and the least important being products about the assessment after disaster.As for spatial scales,counties or towns are the most needed“units”followed by grid points.At present,the precision of the semi-quantitative level of assessment can meet service requirements at a basic level,and the requirements for quantitative risk assessment with a high level of accuracy are not highly in demand.The scientific research framework of meteorological disaster risk assessment is built according to development goals,and the main research contents are proposed,and key technologies and preliminary analysis of solutions are analysed at the end of this paper.