鄂西山区中小流域水文模拟及参数敏感性分析

Hydrological Simulation and Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of Small and Medium Basins in the Western Mountains of Hubei Province

针对古洞口水库流域的暴雨洪水过程,利用新安江水文模型开展了水文模拟试验,结合确定性系数、洪峰流量相对误差、峰现时差等指标对模拟结果进行评定,并以该流域为例进行参数敏感性分析,分别基于确定性系数、洪峰流量相对误差、峰现时差为评价指标,对模型参数敏感性进行定量分析,确定了关键敏感性参数,为优化模型结构及评估模型应用可靠性提供参考依据。

Based on the rainstorm and flood process information for the Gudongkou Reservoir Basin,the Xin’anjiang Hydrological model is used to carry out hydrological simulation tests.The simulation results are evaluated with the determinacy coefficient,the relative error of the flood peak flow and the peak time difference.The parameter sensitivity is analyszed respectively with the deterministic coefficient,the relative error and peak time difference of peak flow as the evaluation indexes,and the sensitivity of the model parameters is carried out quantitatively,then the key sensitivity parameters are determined.It provides a reference for the optimization of model structure and the reliability of the model application.