长江上游嘉陵江首末场强降水时间特征分析及预测

Analysis on Characteristics and Forecast Method of the First and Last Heavy Rainfall in Jialing River of Upper Yangtze River

为满足长江流域水文气象预报防汛和蓄水服务需要,利用功率谱方法对1961—2017年共55年逐日雨量资料,分析了嘉陵江首末场强降水时间周期特征,并利用中国气象局130项气候系统监测指数和逐步回归方法,开展了首末场强降水预测方法研究。结果表明,嘉陵江首末场强降水时间的周期特征显著。基于监测指数建立的回归方程模拟效果好,复相关系数均通过了0.001显著性水平检验。利用回归方程对2006—2017年开展了独立样本检验,符号一致率均为66.7%,表明该方法具有一定的参考价值。

In order to meet the needs of flood control and water storage service in hydrometeorological forecast,the periodic features of the first and last heavy rainfall in the Jialing River of upper Yangtze River are analyzed,by applying the power spectrum method to daily precipitation data at meteorological stations.A prediction method for the first and last heavy rainfall are studied by means of stepwise regression applied to climate system monitoring indexes provided by China Meteorological Administration.The results indicate that there exist obvious periodic features on the first and last heavy rainfall in Jialing River.The regression equations are set up with monitoring indexes.All multiple correlation coefficients of every equations have passed 0.01%significant test level.This means that the equations fit observations very well.The independent sample test results for 2006-2017 from the regression equations show that anomaly sign consistent rates are both 66.7%.Those results mean that this method has a certain reference value.