基于不完全数据的公交排队系统分析

公共交通系统是一个典型的提供成批服务的随机服务系统。国内对于公交排队系统的研究大多以公交IC卡的统计数据为基础,把公交站台当作服务台、乘客当作服务对象。面对中小型城市缺乏完备有效数据的困境则应该转换思路。本文以绵阳市公交系统为研究对象,得到若干公交站点进出站时间的数据集,计算公交车到达指定站点的时间间隔。在确定公交车到达的平均速率符合泊松分布的前提下,建立单服务台,以公交车辆为服务对象的随机服务系统模型,研究分析该站点周期性的客流变化以及拥堵情况。

The public transportation system is a typical stochastic service system which provides bulk service.Most of the domestic research on the bus queuing system is based on the statistical data of the bus IC card,and taking the bus service platform as the service counter and passengers as service object.In the small and medium-sized cities,we should translate ideas to cope with the lack of complete and effective IC data.This paper takes public transportation system of Mianyang City as the studying object,obtaining data sets about the time of entering and leaving several public transit sites tocalculate the time intervals between the arrival of buses at the stations.On the premise that the average rate of arrival of buses conforms to Poisson's distribution,establish stochastic service system model based on single service,taking buses passing it service objects,analyze the periodical changes of the passenger flow and congestion in the station.