基于Vine Copula的原油海运网络中节点连通可靠性研究

Connectivity Reliability of Nodes in the Maritime Transportation Network of Crude Oil Based on Vine Copulas

为评价各突发事件相互关联时的原油海运网络中关键节点的连通可靠性,引入vine copula构建各突发事件的联合分布,并基于各突发事件的联合分布和条件分布进行节点连通可靠性评估.以马六甲海峡为例进行案例分析,结果表明:节点隶属国家政局不稳定及军事冲突与海盗及海上恐怖主义间具有对称的尾部相关性,而海盗及海上恐怖主义和船舶交通事故分别与恶劣天气具有下尾相关性.此外,在节点隶属国家政局不稳定及军事冲突、恶劣天气和海盗及海上恐怖主义的作用下,马六甲海峡的连通可靠性较低,仅为0.239 5;而在节点隶属国家政局不稳定及军事冲突、恶劣天气和船舶交通事故的作用下,马六甲海峡的连通可靠性相对较高.

To evaluate the connectivity reliability of key nodes under the effect of correlative extreme events in the maritime transportation network of crude oil,the vine copula is proposed to construct the joint probability distribution,and the connectivity reliability is evaluated based on the joint and conditional probability distribution.Finally,the Strait of Malacca is illustrated as a case study.The results show that there is a symmetric tail dependence between the political instability or military conflict and the pirates and maritime terrorism.While there is a lower tail dependence between the pirates and maritime terrorism,the vessel accidents and the heavy weather,respectively.Besides,under the effect of political instability or military conflict,heavy weather and pirates and maritime terrorism,the connectivity reliability of the Strait of Malacca is low,which is only 0.239 5.While under the effect of political instability or military conflict,heavy weather and vessel accidents,the connectivity reliability is relatively high.