齐当别视觉下的出行方式偏好反转研究

Preference Reversals Phenomenon of Travel Mode under the Equate-to-differentiate Interpretation

在西南交大两校区校园交通车和119路公交的出行调查中发现,出行者对交通方式偏好和评价存在不一致的现象,并通过谨慎控制调查对偏好反转现象的存在进行了实证.在齐当别的视角下建立起选择支属性的维度判断体系进行匹配心理实验,检验结果发现匹配任务与偏好显著相关,齐当别理论能够对偏好反转现象进行解释.第2次实验通过改变任务顺序和选择支整体期望,验证了齐当别理论可对偏好进行预测,偏好选择是齐当别过程,而不是多维度整合过程.第3次实验通过2组风险场景下的对照,发现概率的引入并不必然提高决策度量水平,偏好反转现象也并非由于个体偏好真实发生了变化,而是由于偏好和评价是不同的策略过程,属性维度差的不同判断结果导致了偏好与评价的不一致.

In the travel investigation for school bus and 119 road bus between the two campus of Southwest Jiaotong University,we found the inconformity between the preferences and evaluation for these two travel mode.Through experimental design of cautious control,the existence of preference reversal phenomenon is confirmed.Under the equate-to-differentiate interpretation,we establish the judgment dimension system of option attributes,and carry out the psychological experiment of matching task.Test results show that,there is significant relationship between the matching task and preference,and PRP can be explained under the equate-todifferentiate interpretation.Then we change the order of experimental task,proving the preference could be forecasted under the equate-to-differentiate interpretation,and preference is the process of equate-to-differentiate,but not dimension integration.At last,we carry out two groups of experiments under the risk condition,and the results show that probability does not necessarily improve the level of decision-making,and the phenomenon of preference reversal is not due to the fact that preference really reverses,but the different strategic process,and the different judgment results of dimension cause the preference reversals.