城市货运车辆选择行为模型及应用

Urban Freight Vehicle Type Choice Model and Application

基于上海市货车出行特征调查,以限行时段进入市中心配送的货车为研究对象,构建包含配送方式属性特征、出行链属性特征和配送企业属性特征的多项Logit和巢式Logit模型以研究城市货运车辆选择行为.根据参数估计可知配送成本、配送时间、装载率、配送点数和通行证满足度对选择行为均有显著影响.经模型比选,利用较优的巢式Logit模型评估上海市货运通行政策,结果表明,通行政策调整可有效促使面包车的配送出行向小型货车转移,且针对不同配送点数的出行链,面包车配送出行的转移量具有显著差异.最后,提出改善"客车载货"现象的对策建议.

This paper takes the urban freight vehicles travelling in the center of Shanghai during the daytime as objectives.Multinomial Logit Model and Nested Logit Model are established considering vehicle type,tour and company related attributes.The results show that the travel cost,travel time,loading rates,the number of stops and the satisfaction degree of traffic permits are all significant.Then the Nested Logit Model is chosen to evaluate freight passing policies.The results show that the adjusted freight passing policies can transfer the share rate of the seven-seat car to the small freight vehicle effectively.Besides,the share rate of the seven-seat car has significant variation among tours with different stop numbers.At last,suggestions are provided to improve the phenomenon of delivering goods by passenger cars.