航班延误信息下旅客选择行为模型及实证

Passenger Choice Behavior Model and Empirical Study under Flight Delay Information

针对航班延误后旅客选择行为的不确定性,本文基于累积前景理论对不同延误情景下旅客的选择行为进行研究.首先,以期望出行时间作为旅客行为选择的参照点,构建航班延误信息下旅客选择行为模型,并指出在不同延误情景下参照点具有动态性特征;然后,利用调查问卷,得到准时到达敏感性、信息影响程度两个参数值及不同延误情景下旅客对出行时间的判断,计算得到期望出行时间;最后,以北京—上海航线为例,计算得到不同延误情景下旅客不同选择行为的累积前景值,从而得到旅客的最优选择行为.结果表明:随着航班延误规模的增大及延误时长的增加,旅客的期望出行时间随之增长,体现了参照点动态性的特点;在不同的延误情景下,旅客的最优选择行为有所差异;通过实际验证,理论模型能有效地描述旅客在不同延误情景下的选择行为.

In view of the uncertainty of passengers'choice behavior after flight delay,this paper studies the choice behavior of passengers under different delay situation based on cumulative prospect theory.First of all,the passenger choice behavior model under flight delay information is proposed by taking the expected travel time as reference point.And the reference point is dynamic in different delay situation.The time sensitivity,degree of information impact and the judgment of travel time in different delay situation are obtained by questionnaire.According to these parameters the paper calculates the expected travel time.Finally,taking Beijing-Shanghai route as an example,the cumulative prospect values of passengers'different behaviors under different delay situation are calculated,thus obtaining the optimal choice behavior of passengers.The results show that,with the increase of flight delay scale and delay time,the expected travel time of passengers will grow,reflecting the dynamic characteristics of the reference point.Under different delay situations,the optimal choice behavior of passengers is different.Verified by practice,the theoretical model can effectively describe the choice behavior of passengers at different delay situation.