蓄意攻击策略下危险品运输网络级联失效仿真

Simulation of Cascading Failure on Hazardous Materials Transportation Network under Targeted Attack

在构建危险品运输网络级联失效模型的基础上,通过控制模型参数,研究了危险品运输网络级联失效特性及不同蓄意攻击策略对网络级联失效的影响。基于大连市危险品道路运输网络特征值,构建了基于WS小世界网络的危险品运输复杂网络生成算法;提出了具有时间阶段特性并带有可调参数的节点初始负载模型,确定了"失效"节点负载分配的择优分配概率模型和节点容量模型,并利用节点负载动态分配概率值,动态描述节点"正常""暂停"和"失效"三种状态,从而构建危险品运输网络级联失效机制模型;以网络级联失效平均规模和相变临界值作为网络抗毁性度量,通过构建两种蓄意攻击策略,对比研究了不同攻击策略对危险品运输网络级联失效抗毁性的影响。仿真结果及理论分析表明:1)构建的危险品运输网络级联失效模型是有效的;2)节点容量系数、过载承受能力调节参数和网络平均节点的度对蓄意攻击策略的变化是不敏感的,但通过提高它们的取值,能够有效降低网络级联失效平均规模,提高网络抗毁性;3)对于节点度的降序攻击策略,可调参数越小,网络抗毁性越强,但对于节点度的升序攻击策略,可调参数越大,网络抗毁性越强,且两种攻击策略下的相变临界值曲线在可调参数为0.5处相交。这些结论为防范蓄意攻击策略的制定提供理论依据。

Based on the model of cascading failure on hazardous materials transportation network(HMTN),this paper researched the characteristics of cascading failure on HMTN and the different targeted attack strategies to the impact of cascading failure on HMTN by controlling the model parameters.Firstly,based on the parameters of HMTN of Dalian city,it established the network generation algorithm of HMTN based on WS small-world network.Secondly,it established the node initial load model with time stage characteristics and tunable parameters,and established the preferential allocation probability model to“failure”node and node capacity model,by using node load dynamic allocation probability value,it described node in the“normal”,“pause”and“failure”three states,then the mechanism model of cascading failure on HMTN was established.Finally,by establishing two kinds of targeted attack strategies and regarding the average size of network cascading failure and phase transition critical value as the measure of invulnerability,a comparative study of different targeted attack strategies to invulnerability of HMTN is researched.Simulation results and theoretical analysis show that:1)the model of cascading failure on HMTN is reasonable and effective;2)the node capacity factor and overload capacity adjustment parameter aren’t sensitive to the change of targeted attack strategies,but it’s useful to reduce the average size of network cascading failure and improve the invulnerability of HMTN by increasing their value;3)For the targeted attack strategies of node degree in descending order,the smaller the tunable parameter is,the stronger the invulnerability of HMTN will be,but for the targeted attack strategies of node degree in ascending order,the bigger the tunable parameter is,the stronger the invulnerability of HMTN will be,and the intersection of their phase transition critical value curves at tunable parameters is equal to 0.5.These results provide a theoretical basis to prevent the terrorist attack for HMTN.