人民币国际地位对境外中国金融资产持有量的影响

Impact of RMB Internationalization on the Cross-Border Holding of Chinese Financial Assets

2017年7月全国金融工作会议再次提出稳步推进人民币国际化,实现资本项目可兑换。借鉴Thimann构建的货币全球地位指标,测算出2006-2015年间22国或地区货币全球地位变化情况,发达经济体货币全球地位占比73.36%,相对2006年下降5.62%。货币全球地位前三名依旧是美国、欧元区和英国。新兴经济体货币全球地位比例与2006年相比上涨。其中,人民币上涨幅度最为显著,由2.69%上涨为6.58%。通过Blundell-Bond的系统GMM模型进行分析与测算,结果显示:在考虑经济规模、双边汇率波动、双边利率差和投资国物价水平不变的情况下,人民币全球地位提高1%将增加0.43%的境外中国金融资产持有量。

In July 2017,the National Financial Work Conference again proposed to steadily push forward the internationalization of RMB and achieve capital account convertibility.Therefore,using Thimannglobal status indicators,the global status changes of 22 countries or regions currencies between 2006 and 2015 were calculated.The global position of the developed economies is 73.36%,which is down 5.62%compared with the 2006's.The top three global positions of currencies still belong to the United States,the Euro zone and the United Kingdom.The proportion of emerging economies in global status increases compared with the 2006,s.Among them,the rise of RMB is the most significant,which is from 2.69%to 6.58%.The conclusion made by the Blundell-Bond's system GMM model shows that the increase of 1%of RMB global status will increase 0.43%of the cross-border holding of Chinese financial assets in consideration of the economic scale,bilateral exchange rate fluctuations,bilateral interest rate differences and prices.