摘要
TFP growth may derive from both technology progress(technical effect) and factor allocation(structural effect). Using China's macroeconomic and industrial data, this paper decomposes China's TFP growth on the basis of growth accounting to cast light on China's growth sources since reform and opening up in 1978. Our study has led to the following findings:(1) From 1978 to 2014, China's economic growth was of generally good quality, and about 1/3 of growth momentum stemmed from a general technology improvement.(2) After 2005, China's late-mover advantage diminished due to narrowed technology gaps with advanced economies. This resulted in a sharp decline in the contribution of technology progress to growth. However, structural effect contributed a steadily increasing share to China's growth.(3) After global financial crisis in 2008, there has been a tendency of reverse technology progress in terms of factor allocation in sectors with excess industrial capacity and other sectors like finance and real estate. Therefore, China should divert its factor resources to more tech-intensive and efficient sectors in the short run, and strive to promote technology progress in all sectors in a longer timeframe.
TFP growth may derive from both technology progress(technical effect) and factor allocation(structural effect). Using China's macroeconomic and industrial data, this paper decomposes China's TFP growth on the basis of growth accounting to cast light on China's growth sources since reform and opening up in 1978. Our study has led to the following findings:(1) From 1978 to 2014, China's economic growth was of generally good quality, and about 1/3 of growth momentum stemmed from a general technology improvement.(2) After 2005, China's late-mover advantage diminished due to narrowed technology gaps with advanced economies. This resulted in a sharp decline in the contribution of technology progress to growth. However, structural effect contributed a steadily increasing share to China's growth.(3) After global financial crisis in 2008, there has been a tendency of reverse technology progress in terms of factor allocation in sectors with excess industrial capacity and other sectors like finance and real estate. Therefore, China should divert its factor resources to more tech-intensive and efficient sectors in the short run, and strive to promote technology progress in all sectors in a longer timeframe.
作者
蔡跃洲
付一夫
Cai Yuezhou;Fu Yifu
基金
supported by CASS Innovation Project“Analysis and Estimation of Innovation-Driven Development”(10620161001005)
National Soft Science Program“Industrial Structural Transition,Technology Innovation and Improvement of China’s Economic Growth Potentials”(2014GXS4B073)
Center of the Research of Chinese Socialism Theories/Major Program of the National Social Science Foundation of China(NSFC)“Study on Innovation-Driven Development Strategy and Mass Entrepreneurship and Mass Innovation”(2015YZD03)
