基于无偏灰色模型的中国能源生产总量及其构成的分析与预测

Analysis and Prediction of China's Energy Production and Its Composition Based on Unbiased Grey Prediction Model

能源是国民经济增长、社会稳定持续发展以及实现社会主义现代化建设目标的物质动力和基本保障。能源的开发、节约等问题关乎着社会稳定和环境安全,引起了世界各国的高度重视。本文以中国统计年鉴2017年的数据为基础,基于无偏灰色模型预测了2017到2021年中国能源生产总量及其构成并分析了能源生产结构的变动趋势,对煤炭行业解决产能问题和改善环境质量等具有重要意义。结果表明,2017到2021年全国能源生产总量逐年增长,但增长率逐渐下降。原煤的年产量明显减少,而原油和天然气的年产量均保持缓慢的上升趋势,可再生能源的年产量逐年增长且增长速度较快。预测结果符合我国能源生产总量及其构成的发展趋势,对实现我国低碳环保、大力发展绿色清洁能源的治国理念和方针政策有重要意义。

Energy is the material power and basic guarantee for the national economic growth,sustainable social development and realizing the goal of socialist modernization.The development and conservation of energy are closely related to social stability and environmental security,which have aroused great attention from all countries in the world.This paper predicts the total energy production in China from 2017 to 2021 by using the unbiased Grey prediction model based on the China's Statistical Yearbook 2017.Then the energy production structure and its changing trend are Analyzed.The results show that the total energy production will increase year by year with an decreasing growth rate from 2017 to 2021.Specifically,the annual output of raw coal has been reduced significantly,while the annual output of crude oil and natural gas keeps a slow rising trend.In addition,the annual output of renewable energy increases with a rapid growth rate.The forecast results are in line with the development trend of the total energy production and its composition in China.It is of great significance to realize the Chinese government idea and policy of low carbon energy,environmental protection and green cleanliness.